26 Feb 2026
Every cycle has "headline" metros, but the best operators and investors keep a second list: markets where the setup is quietly improving. The 2026 Radius+ Forecast's Top 25 CBSAs is that list.
Across these metros, you see one of three "good stories" playing out:
Barriers to entry are doing the work (zoning, land constraints, high costs, and entitlement friction).
Recent supply is being absorbed because demand drivers are steady and housing growth is real.
The pipeline is thinning after a burst of development, giving fundamentals room to recover.
Radius+ calls out that common thread directly: slow-and-steady supply growth has created a favorable environment for performance recovery, with earlier deliveries leasing up and economic fundamentals stable enough to support absorption.
When a market is genuinely hard to build in, existing facilities often get the benefit of time: fewer new competitors, steadier occupancy, and more durable pricing power.
San Jose is a clean example. Radius+ highlights it as one of the highest barrier-to-entry markets, with very limited new supply in recent years and strong demand for climate-controlled and premium storage driven by high incomes and major technology employers.
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont shows the same dynamic: high barrier to entry, limited new supply growth, and demand supported by high renter share and high incomes, with premium and climate-controlled demand holding up as development remains constrained.
Some Top 25 metros are not supply-starved. They are markets where supply came through, and now the timing improves because deliveries slow and absorption can catch up.
Indianapolis is a clear case. The Forecast notes significant supply growth in 2024, then no new supply added in 2025, with rental rates showing early improvement as new facilities lease up and occupancy strengthens.
Louisville also fits here: a noticeable increase in deliveries in 2024, followed by slowed additions, allowing occupancy to rise and rental rates to start moving higher.
A lot of "hot" markets rely on one narrative. The Top 25 leans toward metros with multiple demand supports: job growth, housing development, diversified employers, logistics and manufacturing, higher renter share, and steady household formation.
Radius+ describes El Paso as benefiting from transient demand tied to cross-border activity, plus housing expansion on the east side supporting absorption, with newer climate-controlled demand concentrated in higher-income, higher-homeownership pockets.
The Forecast's takeaway is that many of these markets are positioned for healthier rental rate trends and stronger operational performance because new deliveries are leasing up, pipelines have thinned, and fundamentals remain stable enough to keep absorption moving.
If you are an operator, investor, or developer, treat the Top 25 as a screening layer, then pressure-test each market with three fast checks:
Where is the lease-up inventory concentrated?
If the lease-up is clustered in a few submarkets, the "market average" can hide local volatility.
Is demand broad-based or pocket-based?
Markets like El Paso can perform well, but the Forecast notes that strength can be tied to specific growth corridors and customer profiles.
Is the pipeline truly thinning, or just shifting phases?
A "quiet" year can be followed by a wave of planned and permitted products. That is why reading the development activity (planning, permitted, under construction) alongside the narrative matters.
These are the metros where supply has been disciplined enough, or is becoming disciplined again, that operators can get back to fundamentals: occupancy stability, measured rate growth, and better-quality revenue as the cycle turns.
